zakmck ha scritto: Cita:
Zelman ha scritto:
ma mi chiedo tutte le invasioni di locuste, cavallette, grilli, pipistrelli, cicale in questo caso dove vadano a ritirarsi una volta effettuate le invasioni cicliche...
e cosa gli dà il segnale di scatenare l'invasione...
![Compiaciuto [8)]](./images/smilies/UF/icon_smile_shy.gif)
Ma non e' che si puo' fare di tutte le erbe un fascio. Tutti i casi che hai citato sono assolutamente non accomunabili. Ogni caso ha le sue spiegazioni.
Cita:
ci sarà un minimo numero per un'invasione... devono saperlo quando raggiungono questo numero...
Ma cosa pensi che si mettano d'accordo?
due milioni di anni fa il territorio del Nord America era ricoperto dai ghiacci le Cicada per proteggersi dal freddo si ripararono sotto terra per un lungo periodo così da aumentare le chance di sopravvivenza.
17-year cicadas escaped iceQ: Most cicadas live and die in a year. Why did 17-year cicadas become so long-lived? (Shirley, Florida, New York)
A: Periodical cicadas (genus Magicicada) probably first appeared almost two million years ago, when glaciers covered the land and the North American climate was chaotic. They evolved a clever strategy to combat the vagaries of weather — staying in the warm underground as long as possible. Adult cicadas mating [Leon Higley, University of Nebraska-Lincoln]
"By living longer [as a nymph], the cicada ‘ducks’ more of the bad years in its comparatively safe underground burrows," says David Marshall, biologist at University of Connecticut Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. "The cold is a threat to the adult phase only because cicadas can’t sing, fly, and mate if it is too cold."
Although each cicada lives 17 years, they move through life as a group, called a brood. All hatch, grow, emerge, become adults, mate, and die together, synchronized with their brood mates. Almost no adult emerges in the intervening 16 years.
To picture how they might have evolved to this life style, imagine cicadas long, long ago when the climate bopped around chaotically and suppose they did not live synchronized lives. Instead, broods stagger their lives by a year — different broods emerging each year. So, 4-year cicadas have 4 broods and 17-year cicadas have 17 broods. Which cicada species would better survive— one with a 4-year life span or a 17-year span?
For a given time period, over four times as many 4-year broods will emerge into the maelstrom as will 17-year broods. So, the odds are much higher that a cold snap occurs when a 4-year brood emerges and, therefore, clobbers that brood. But, maybe the next brood will get lucky and miss the bad weather so the species will survive.
That depends, of course, on how long the bad weather lasts. If the cold snap lasts for 4 years, the species is a goner. Each brood will emerge into the cold and die. The climate, however, is less likely to stay bad for a whole 17 years, which gives a 17-year cycle cicada a much better chance of surviving. Natural selection would favor the longer-lived species. Also, nature would select those cicadas that synchronized their lives and emerged only rarely — at the end of their life span.
Randel T. Cox of the University of Memphis and C.E. Carlton of the Louisiana State Entomology Museum devised a mathematical model of cicada survival probabilities based on a similar set of assumptions. They postulated that, over 1500 years, the weather would get killingly cold 1 year, at random, out of 50.
The model shows that 4-year cicadas practically don’t survive such climate — a survival rate of 0.4%. Whereas, 17-year cicadas have a 96% chance of survival. Perhaps that is why 17-year cicadas evolved such a long subterranean life.
Further Reading:
Cox, R.T. and Carlton, C.E., 1998, A commentary on prime numbers and life cycles of periodical cicadas: American Naturalist, v. 152–164.
(Answered Aug. 13, 2004)
http://www.wonderquest.com/brain-cell-r ... lution.htm